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Date: Sat, 8 Jan 94 18:37:53 PST From: Info-Hams Mailing List and Newsgroup <info-hams@ucsd.edu> Errors-To: Info-Hams-Errors@UCSD.Edu Reply-To: Info-Hams@UCSD.Edu Precedence: Bulk Subject: Info-Hams Digest V94 #16 To: Info-Hams Info-Hams Digest Sat, 8 Jan 94 Volume 94 : Issue 16 Today's Topics: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 January Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 07 January Fixing loose BNC connectors on HT's Weekly Solar Terrestrial Forecast & Review for 07 January Send Replies or notes for publication to: <Info-Hams@UCSD.Edu> Send subscription requests to: <Info-Hams-REQUEST@UCSD.Edu> Problems you can't solve otherwise to brian@ucsd.edu. Archives of past issues of the Info-Hams Digest are available (by FTP only) from UCSD.Edu in directory "mailarchives/info-hams". We trust that readers are intelligent enough to realize that all text herein consists of personal comments and does not represent the official policies or positions of any party. Your mileage may vary. So there. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 7 Jan 1994 10:41:13 MST From: swrinde!gatech!usenet.ins.cwru.edu!agate!library.ucla.edu!news.mic.ucla.edu!unixg.ubc.ca!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!nebulus!ve6mgs!usenet@network.ucsd.edu Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 January To: info-hams@ucsd.edu /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 06 JANUARY, 1994 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 06 JANUARY, 1994 ----------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 006, 01/06/94 10.7 FLUX=132.1 90-AVG=101 SSN=144 BKI=2233 3202 BAI=009 BGND-XRAY=B4.9 FLU1=2.9E+05 FLU10=1.2E+04 PKI=3333 3312 PAI=011 BOU-DEV=018,014,025,028,023,018,004,017 DEV-AVG=018 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= C6.2 @ 0619UT XRAY-MIN= B3.1 @ 2034UT XRAY-AVG= B8.2 NEUTN-MAX= +001% @ 2355UT NEUTN-MIN= -003% @ 0040UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.2% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2355UT PCA-MIN= -0.8DB @ 0005UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55352NT @ 1434UT BOUTF-MIN=55328NT @ 1916UT BOUTF-AVG=55340NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+054,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+117NT@ 1802UT GOES6-MIN=N:-078NT@ 0620UT G6-AVG=+077,+025,-033 FLUXFCST=STD:130,125,120;SESC:130,125,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,010/015,022,012 KFCST=0003 5000 0003 5000 27DAY-AP=007,008 27DAY-KP=2223 3221 2232 2212 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=2@0621-0629UTC;**SWEEP:II=2@0647-0710UTC !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 05 JAN 94 was 63.7. The Full Kp Indices for 05 JAN 94 are: 1o 1o 1+ 2- 2o 2- 1o 2o SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was low. Region 7646 (S08W39) generated the majority of the days C-class flares, accounting for six. The largest flare of the day was an optically uncorrelated C6 with an associated Type II radio sweep at 06/0619Z. A new Region was assigned: Region 7650 (N04E41). Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled due to numerous small flares. Event probabilities 07 jan-09 jan Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF Yellow Geomagnetic activity probabilities 07 jan-09 jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all regions. Minor signal degradation may be sporadically observed on high-latitude circuits over the next several days, but particularly on 08 January. Otherwise, near-normal conditions should persist throughout the next 72 hours. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z JANUARY ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7645 N12W35 083 0140 FSI 18 023 BETA-GAMMA 7646 S09W38 086 0520 EKI 11 036 BETA-GAMMA 7647 S16W48 096 0030 ESO 12 003 BETA 7648 N06E29 019 0510 DKI 10 028 BETA 7650 N04E41 007 0020 BXO 05 004 BETA 7649 S12W27 075 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 07 JANUARY TO 09 JANUARY NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 06 JANUARY, 1994 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP 0607 0619 0624 C6.2 170 35 II 0645 0654 0701 C1.4 II 0809 0809 0809 400 POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 06 JANUARY, 1994 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV 06/0621 0629 RSP C6.2 17 2 06/0647 0710 RSP C1.4 16 2 INFERRED CORONAL HOLES: LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 55 S24E53 S40E47 S30E17 S20E30 022 ISO NEG 008 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 05 Jan: 0010 0024 0032 B8.3 SF 7645 N15W04 B0105 U0115 A0126 SF 7645 N16W04 0350 0402 0407 C1.4 0549 0553 0557 B7.0 0725 0725 0735 SF 7645 N14W05 0743 0743 0746 SF 7646 S09W15 0823 0828 0838 C2.8 SF 7645 N17W08 0858 0903 0909 C1.9 SF 7646 S11W21 1023 1026 1033 C1.5 1155 1158 1216 B9.4 1321 1329 1332 C1.8 SF 7648 N04E49 1359 1407 1420 C1.9 SF 7645 N16W11 38 1450 1453 1458 SF 7646 S09W27 B1505 U1512 A1515 SF 7645 N13W14 1524 1531 1534 C1.4 1541 1545 1548 C1.7 SN 7648 N03E47 1631 1634 1636 C1.8 SF 7646 S11W26 1645 1647 1651 SF 7646 S17W29 1656 1657 1702 SF 7648 N02E47 1702 1704 1711 SF 7645 N14W09 1718 1722 1724 C1.7 SF 7646 S11W24 1754 1801 1803 C2.8 1N 7646 S10W24 1819 1822 1824 C1.3 SF 7646 S06W26 1840 1845 1849 C1.5 1929 1933 1935 C1.1 1943 1946 1950 C2.4 SF 7646 S05W26 2339 2343 2346 B9.8 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7645: 2 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 007 (25.0) Region 7646: 6 0 0 8 1 0 0 0 009 (32.1) Region 7647: 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 001 ( 3.6) Region 7648: 2 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 003 (10.7) Uncorrellated: 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 008 (28.6) Total Events: 028 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 05 Jan: 0010 0024 0032 B8.3 SF 7645 N15W04 III 0350 0402 0407 C1.4 III 0645 0704 0725 M1.0 1N 7647 S13W23 II,III,V 0725 0725 0735 SF 7645 N14W05 III,V 0743 0743 0746 SF 7646 S09W15 III 0823 0828 0838 C2.8 SF 7645 N17W08 III 1155 1158 1216 B9.4 III 1359 1407 1420 C1.9 SF 7645 N16W11 III,V B1505 U1512 A1515 SF 7645 N13W14 III 1656 1657 1702 SF 7648 N02E47 III 2339 2343 2346 B9.8 III NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 7 Jan 1994 22:01:43 MST From: sdd.hp.com!vixen.cso.uiuc.edu!howland.reston.ans.net!agate!library.ucla.edu!news.mic.ucla.edu!unixg.ubc.ca!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!nebulus!ve6mgs!usenet@network.ucsd.edu Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 07 January To: info-hams@ucsd.edu /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 07 JANUARY, 1994 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 07 JANUARY, 1994 ----------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 007, 01/07/94 10.7 FLUX=126.3 90-AVG=101 SSN=135 BKI=1001 2011 BAI=002 BGND-XRAY=B3.8 FLU1=5.8E+05 FLU10=1.2E+04 PKI=1113 3121 PAI=006 BOU-DEV=006,004,004,008,015,004,009,009 DEV-AVG=007 NT SWF=01:003 XRAY-MAX= M1.3 @ 0943UT XRAY-MIN= B2.9 @ 2034UT XRAY-AVG= B8.2 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 2135UT NEUTN-MIN= -001% @ 2335UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.0% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2345UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1335UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55353NT @ 1520UT BOUTF-MIN=55332NT @ 1911UT BOUTF-AVG=55344NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+072,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+124NT@ 1716UT GOES6-MIN=N:-056NT@ 0907UT G6-AVG=+095,+025,-027 FLUXFCST=STD:120,115,110;SESC:120,115,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,005/022,012,010 KFCST=0003 5000 0003 5000 27DAY-AP=008,007 27DAY-KP=2232 2212 2124 2211 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.3/1N@0943UTC;**TENFLR:250SFU@1233UTC,DUR=4MIN !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 06 JAN 94 was 69.1. The Full Kp Indices for 06 JAN 94 are: 3o 3- 3- 3o 3- 3- 1+ 2+ SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was moderate. Region 7646 (S10W51) produced an M1/1N flare at 07/0943Z and six C-class bursts. Other regions on the disk remained stable. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. High latitude stations reported active conditions from 1200-1500Z. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active due to moderate flare activity. Event probabilities 08 jan-10 jan Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF Yellow Geomagnetic activity probabilities 08 jan-10 jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/15/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/20/20 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Conditions are expected to remain sporadically unstable over the high and polar latitude paths during the next several days. Several weak interplanetary disturbances may be observed from the minor flare activity that has occurred over the last several days. Otherwise, near-normal conditions will persist if these disturbances fail to arrive. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z JANUARY ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7645 N13W49 084 0110 FAO 17 010 BETA-GAMMA 7646 S08W51 086 0400 EKI 11 021 BETA 7647 S15W61 096 0050 ESO 12 004 BETA 7648 N07E17 018 0440 EKI 11 029 BETA 7649 S17W46 081 0010 HRX 01 002 ALPHA 7650 N05E28 007 0040 CSO 07 009 BETA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 08 JANUARY TO 10 JANUARY NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 07 JANUARY, 1994 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP 0937 0943 0945 7646 S09W45 M1.3 1N 45 1231 1241 1257 7646 S04W44 C2.3 SF 250 2340 2340 2340 100 POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 07 JANUARY, 1994 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV 06/A2326 07/B1447 S24E12 DSF INFERRED CORONAL HOLES: LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 55 S38E56 S38E56 S29E09 S19E13 008 ISO NEG 017 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 06 Jan: 0050 0053 0055 C1.3 0402 0407 0409 C4.9 200 0607 0619 0624 C6.2 35 0645 0654 0701 C1.4 0746 0759 0803 C4.6 SN 7646 S09W34 30 1003 1012 1028 C1.4 SF 7646 S09W32 1236 1240 1245 C4.2 SN 7646 S09W35 99 40 1428 1434 1444 C2.2 SF 7646 S11W37 1518 1521 1523 C1.4 SF 7646 S10W36 1658 1703 1706 B8.5 SF 7646 S09W38 1725 1738 1801 C1.1 SF 7646 S11W37 1855 1901 1903 C1.1 SF 7646 S09W39 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7646: 7 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 008 (66.7) Uncorrellated: 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 004 (33.3) Total Events: 012 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 06 Jan: 0607 0619 0624 C6.2 II,III,V 0645 0654 0701 C1.4 II 0746 0759 0803 C4.6 SN 7646 S09W34 III NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** ------------------------------ Date: 9 Jan 94 01:21:23 GMT From: news.sprintlink.net!clark.net!andy@uunet.uu.net Subject: Fixing loose BNC connectors on HT's To: info-hams@ucsd.edu Matthew Rapaport (mjr@crl.com) wrote: : Some months back (Oct. | Nov.) in MT there was a description of how to : tighten up on BNC connectors that had gotten loose after many : connect-disconnect cycles. The problem is that the V shaped inner connector : becomes loose. : The article said to squeeze the ends of the inner connector together a little : bit. It is not clear if you are supposed to take the connector *out* of : the radio to do this. If so how? In my Alinco, this connector is seated : very tightly in the plastic insulator. I could try to pry it out, but it : seems as though I might be detaching it from what ever it is connected to if : I do... I have the same problem with my Alinco. From experience, the BNC connector is the weakest link on the HT. I watched someone resolder the inner connector...disassembling the radio to get to the BNC connectors was not a pretty sight; it's pretty well buried. But back to your problem... I used a tiny screwdriver; the kind you tighten eyeglasses with; carefully inserted the screwdriver between the metal and plastic, and pushed toward the center. Repeating for the other piece of metal. That seemed to help. Nevertheless, I've seen better quality BNC's than what's used in the Alinco. andy/k4adl ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 7 Jan 1994 15:31:40 MST From: sdd.hp.com!vixen.cso.uiuc.edu!howland.reston.ans.net!agate!library.ucla.edu!news.mic.ucla.edu!unixg.ubc.ca!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!nebulus!ve6mgs!usenet@network.ucsd.edu Subject: Weekly Solar Terrestrial Forecast & Review for 07 January To: info-hams@ucsd.edu --- SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW --- January 07 to January 16, 1994 Report Released by Solar Terrestrial Dispatch P.O. Box 357, Stirling, Alberta, Canada T0K 2E0 Accessible BBS System: (403) 756-3008 --------- SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECASTS AT A GLANCE ---------------------------------------------------- |10.7 cm|HF Propagation +/- CON|SID AU.BKSR DX| Mag| Aurora | |SolrFlx|LO MI HI PO SWF %MUF %|ENH LO MI HI LO MI HI %|K Ap|LO MI HI| --|-------|-----------------------|-------------------------|----|--------| 07| 125 | G G F F 40 +10 70| 40 NA NA NA 00 05 10 40|2 10|NV NV LO| 08| 120 | G G P P 35 00 65| 35 NA NA NA 02 10 20 30|3 18|NV LO MO| 09| 115 | G G F F 30 +05 65| 30 NA NA NA 01 10 20 30|3 14|NV NV MO| 10| 115 | G G F F 30 +10 70| 30 NA NA NA 01 05 15 35|2 10|NV NV LO| 11| 110 | G G F F 30 +10 70| 30 NA NA NA 01 05 15 35|2 12|NV NV LO| 12| 100 | G G P P 20 00 65| 20 NA NA NA 02 15 25 30|4 20|NV LO MO| 13| 100 | G G P P 20 00 65| 20 NA NA NA 02 15 25 30|4 20|NV LO MO| 14| 105 | G G F F 20 +05 65| 20 NA NA NA 02 10 20 30|3 15|NV NV LO| 15| 110 | G G F F 20 +05 65| 20 NA NA NA 02 10 15 30|2 10|NV NV LO| 16| 110 | G G F F 20 00 65| 20 NA NA NA 02 10 15 30|2 10|NV NV LO| PEAK PLANETARY 10-DAY GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OUTLOOK (07 JAN - 16 JAN) ________________________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY SEVERE | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH | | VERY SEVERE STORM | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH | | SEVERE STORM | | | | | | | | | | | MODERATE | | MAJOR STORM | | | | | | | | | | | LOW - MOD. | | MINOR STORM | | | | | | | | | | | LOW | | VERY ACTIVE | | | | | | | | | | | NONE | | ACTIVE | | **|** | | | * | * | | | | NONE | | UNSETTLED | * |***|***|** |***|***|***|***|** |** | NONE | | QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE | | VERY QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE | |-------------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|------------| | Geomagnetic Field |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| Anomaly | | Conditions | Given in 8-hour UT intervals | Intensity | |________________________________________________________________________| CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 65% NOTES: Predicted geomagnetic activity is based heavily on recurrent phenomena. Transient energetic solar events cannot be predicted reliably over periods in excess of several days. Hence, there may be some deviations from the predictions due to the unpredictable transient solar component. 60-DAY GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY ____________________________________________________________ 51 | J | 48 | J | 46 | J | 43 | J | 41 | J | 38 | M J | 36 | MM J | 33 | MM J | 31 | MM J | 28 | MM J | 26 | MM J | 23 | MM J | 20 | AMM J A | 18 | AA AMM J A AAA | 15 | AA AMM AJ AA AAAA | 13 | AA AMM AJ AAU U AAAA | 10 | U U AA AMM AJ AAU U AAAAU U| 8 |UU UUUU AAU U U AMMUU AJ U UAAUUUUUUU AAAAU U| 5 |UUQ UUUUQAAU Q QU U AMMUUQAJQUUU UAAUUUUUUUUU AAAAUQ U| 3 |UUQQUUUUQAAUQQQQQUQQUQAMMUUQAJQUUUQQUAAUUUUUUUUUQQQQAAAAUQQU| 0 |UUQQUUUUQAAUQQQQQUQQUQAMMUUQAJQUUUQQUAAUUUUUUUUUQQQQAAAAUQQU| ------------------------------------------------------------ Chart Start Date: Day #313 NOTES: This graph is determined by plotting the greater of either the planetary A-index or the Boulder A-index. Graph lines are labelled according to the severity of the activity which occurred on each day. The left- hand column represents the associated A-Index for that day. Q = Quiet, U = Unsettled, A = Active, M = Minor Storm, J = Major Storm, and S = Severe Storm. CUMULATIVE GRAPHICAL CHART OF THE 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX ---------------------------------------------------------- ____________________________________________________________ 151 | | 148 | * | 145 | ** | 142 | * ** | 139 | * ***** | 136 | * ***** * | 133 | ** ****** * | 130 | ** ****** **| 127 | ************| 124 | *************| 121 | *************| 118 | **************| 115 | **************| 112 | **************| 109 | * ***************| 106 | * * * ***************| 103 | * ***** *** ****************| 100 | ****** ** ********* *****************| 097 | *********** ********** *****************| 094 | ************* ************ *****************| 091 | *************** *************** *******************| 088 |************************************ *******************| 085 |************************************** *********************| 082 |************************************************************| ------------------------------------------------------------ Chart Start: Day #313 GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF 90-DAY AVERAGE SOLAR FLUX ----------------------------------------------- ____________________________________________________________ 102 | | 101 | ****| 100 | *********| 099 | **************| 098 | **************************| 097 | ********************************| 096 | ***********************************| 095 | ***************************************| 094 | ***************************************************| 093 |************************************************************| 092 |************************************************************| ------------------------------------------------------------ Chart Start: Day #313 NOTES: The 10.7 cm solar radio flux is plotted from data reported by the Penticton Radio Observatory (formerly the ARO from Ottawa). High solar flux levels denote higher levels of activity and a greater number of sunspot groups on the Sun. The 90-day mean solar flux graph is charted from the 90-day mean of the 10.7 cm solar radio flux. CUMULATIVE GRAPHICAL CHART OF SUNSPOT NUMBERS --------------------------------------------- ____________________________________________________________ 161 | | 154 | * | 147 | * | 140 | **| 133 | ** * **| 126 | *** ****| 119 | * *** ****| 112 | ** * *** ****| 105 | ** ******* ****| 098 | ** * * ** ******* ****| 091 | *** ** ** ***************| 084 | ********** ***************| 077 | * * *********** ***************| 070 | ** * ************ ****************| 063 | **** ************ ****************| 056 | ********* ************** *****************| 049 | ************************* * * *****************| 042 | *************************** ** *******************| 035 | ** **************************** * ** *******************| 028 | ** ****************************** * *** *******************| 021 |*** ********************************************************| 014 |************************************************************| ------------------------------------------------------------ Chart Start: Day #313 NOTES: The graphical chart of sunspot numbers is created from the daily sunspot number counts as reported by the SESC. HF RADIO SIGNAL PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (07 JAN - 16 JAN) High Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | FAIR |***| **| **|***|***| **| **|***|***|***| ------- | POOR | |* |* | | |* |* | | | | 65% | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | QUALITY | Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- Middle Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD | * | | | * | * | | | * | * | * | CONFIDENCE | GOOD |* *| **|***|* *|* *| **| **|* *|* *|* *| LEVEL | FAIR | |* | | | |* |* | | | | ------- | POOR | | | | | | | | | | | 70% | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | QUALITY | Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- Low Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD | **| * | * | **| **| * | * | **| **| **| CONFIDENCE | GOOD |* |* *|* *|* |* |* *|* *|* |* |* | LEVEL | FAIR | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | POOR | | | | | | | | | | | 70% | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | QUALITY | Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- NOTES: NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE High latitudes >= 55 deg. N. | High latitudes >= 55 deg. S. Middle latitudes >= 40 < 55 deg. N. | Middle latitudes >= 30 < 55 deg. S. Low latitudes < 40 deg. N. | Low latitudes < 30 deg. S. POTENTIAL VHF DX PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (07 JAN - 16 JAN) INCLUDES SID AND AURORAL BACKSCATTER ENHANCEMENT PREDICTIONS HIGH LATITUDES __________________________________________________ ___________________ | FORECAST | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |SWF/SID ENHANCEMENT| |CONFIDENCE|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 40% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------| | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | | | | | | | | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 40% | **| * | * | **| **| * | * | **| **| **| 40%| | | | | | | | | | | | 20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%| |*| | | |*|*| | | | | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |----------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| |CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| | VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER| |__________|_______________________________________| |___________________| MIDDLE LATITUDES __________________________________________________ ___________________ | FORECAST | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |SWF/SID ENHANCEMENT| |CONFIDENCE|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 40% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 60% |* *| *|* *|* *|* *| **| **|***|***|***| 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------| | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | * | | | * | * | | | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 40% |***| **|***|***|***| **| **|***|***|***| 40%| | | | | | | | | | | | 20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%| | | | | | | | | | | | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |----------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| |CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| | VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER| |__________|_______________________________________| |___________________| LOW LATITUDES __________________________________________________ ___________________ | FORECAST | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |SWF/SID ENHANCEMENT| |CONFIDENCE|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 40% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 60% |***|***|***|***|***|***|** |***|***|***| 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------| | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | **| **| **| **| **| **| * | **| **| **| 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 40% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%| | | | | | | | | | | | 20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%| | | | | | | | | | | | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |----------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| |CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| | VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER| |__________|_______________________________________| |___________________| NOTES: These VHF DX prediction charts are defined for the 30 MHz to 220 MHz bands. They are based primarily on phenomena which can affect VHF DX propagation globally. They should be used only as a guide to potential DX conditions on VHF bands. Latitudinal boundaries are the same as those for the HF predictions charts. AURORAL ACTIVITY PREDICTIONS (07 JAN - 16 JAN) High Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | MODERATE | * | * | | | * | * | | | | | 65% | LOW |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- Middle Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | MODERATE | | | | | | | | | | | 70% | LOW | | * | | | * | * | | | | | | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- Low Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | MODERATE | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | LOW | | | | | | | | | | | | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: Version 2.00b of our Professional Dynamic Auroral Oval Simulation Software Package is now available. This professional software is particularly valuable to radio communicators, aurora photographers, educators, and astronomers. For more information regarding this software, contact: "Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA", or "COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu". For more information regarding these charts, send a request for the document, "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to: "Oler@Rho.Uleth.Ca" or to: "COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu". This document, as well as others and related data/forecasts exist on the STD BBS at: (403) 756-3008. ** End of Report ** ------------------------------ End of Info-Hams Digest V94 #16 ******************************